I've been just messing around with intraday data for the last couple weeks. Mostly just indexes to see if I can come up with some mildly profitable strategies on SPY and DIA. So far, I can't say I have much to show for it.
I've been reading the David Aronson book; Evidence-Based Technical Analysis: Applying the Scientific Method and Statistical Inference to Trading Signals. I've only read the first two chapters at this point and skimmed some of the appendicies, but I have a general idea of where he is going from the amazon reviews. My hope is to come out of this book with a better way to vet my trading ideas.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Friday, February 01, 2008
Keep printing the money
So things didn't work on like the scenario I outlined, however we did go down to the levels I anticipated. In retrospect, I should have liquidated everything, instead of half my positions. I missed my price target on going short by just a few cents again. So not a very good month for me.
So where are we headed next. Outlook is up to SPY at around 142.50, then more weakness. Same thing for DIA around 130.
I'm not as confident about my prognostication this month as I was last month. What I am certain about is that lowering interest rates was just a knee jerk reaction to the markets falling. There was a great article in the Van Tharpe newsletter I get about how the government 'fixes' the inflation numbers to make is seem like everything is under control. What is so convincing to me that we are experiencing inflation; it shows up every time I go to the grocery store, and my girlfriend complains about how expensive everything is. When I go to the gas pump it's all too obvious. Looking at the rents in my neighborhood, the cost to ride Metro, the cost to buy a car, my freaking Comcast bill... all up significantly.
There are spaces we are not experiencing inflation. Go to Best Buy and look at laptops or flat screen TV's. Definetely more quality for less dollars. We are also seeing deflation in the largest ticket item, houses.
So the fed is just lowering interest rates, to stop the deflation in housing. While, this benefits me as a homeowner, I'm not sure that it's the best plan for the economy.
So where are we headed next. Outlook is up to SPY at around 142.50, then more weakness. Same thing for DIA around 130.
I'm not as confident about my prognostication this month as I was last month. What I am certain about is that lowering interest rates was just a knee jerk reaction to the markets falling. There was a great article in the Van Tharpe newsletter I get about how the government 'fixes' the inflation numbers to make is seem like everything is under control. What is so convincing to me that we are experiencing inflation; it shows up every time I go to the grocery store, and my girlfriend complains about how expensive everything is. When I go to the gas pump it's all too obvious. Looking at the rents in my neighborhood, the cost to ride Metro, the cost to buy a car, my freaking Comcast bill... all up significantly.
There are spaces we are not experiencing inflation. Go to Best Buy and look at laptops or flat screen TV's. Definetely more quality for less dollars. We are also seeing deflation in the largest ticket item, houses.
So the fed is just lowering interest rates, to stop the deflation in housing. While, this benefits me as a homeowner, I'm not sure that it's the best plan for the economy.
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