A few trades and my own Personal Finance

I placed a few trades going in to this weeks fed meeting. I bought some more DBV in the 401K. It looks to me like a good way to get some diversified currency exposure.

The only trade of note was opening up a position in HPQ. It's been a strong bullish trend here for a little bit. It appears that the trend has slowed down a bit, and I'm seeing some resistance at 53, however it It has been pretty steady through this past volatile week.

My strategy is to hold it for another few days and see what it does, if it closes past 53, than I will keep it till earnings, if it flounders back down I'll be out.

To abruptly change subjects, I am considering selling my condo ( in the midst of these truly terrible market). Although not directly related to my trading, it will have a significant impact on my net worth and my trading capital. While currently, I'm not planning on digging in to my trading capital for my next property, I would be able to afford a bit more if had this ability.

This really comes down to an investment decision, is my money better off in real estate or in the markets? Well obviously it more liquid in the markets, I can sell whatever holdings I have at any point, transfer it to the bank and have cash in minutes.

This is kind of a change in philosophy for me, but owning real estate really doesn't equate to financial security. To be financially secure, you have to enough reserves to pay your mortgage for some amount of time. You must have enough liquid assets to pay for food, and other necessities. I don't think many Americans live in a world where that is possible. I know many of spend irresponsibly too, but that would have to be a topid of another post.

So what is a good reserve amount. That is highly dependent on the person. It is also dependent on your age, family situation, real estate owned, and monthly expenses. I think a good rule of thumb is to have at least 1 years total expenses. I am always conservative in my numbers, so I will aim high for myself: mortgage is 2100 a month plus 250 condo fees, plus roughly 1000 a month in expenses (this number could be cut but for the sake of working through this). This is roughly 40K.

So 40K in reserves, not too bad. 2 years, 80K, 3 years, 120K, 4 years 160K. Right now, I am somewhere above 2 years reserve. If I buy and sell, that will probably drop a little, but not much.

I think to really to be "really" financially secure, you would like to someday own your home outright (yea, I know, Un-American). This would allow for any income made, to go straight to savings and monthly expenses To get there I would need to be in a positive liquid net value situation. Where the amount liquid assets (not houses) are greater than any liabilities (mortgages). I think this is quite possible in ten years in my current line of work.

At any rate, I think it's important to aim high, while living responsibly. So my current goal for the 1 to 3 year goals:
year 1: reserves of 138K
year 2: reserves of 193K
year 3: reserves of 256K
While maintaining a mortgage of less than 380K. That is quite a bit of work, but I think quite possible. This assumes savings of 48K, 55K, and 63K each year for the next 3 years. The assumption should be something more like this: 30K saved (120K total plus roughly 15% earnings = 138K).

Obviously I would like to achieve quite a bit better than that with some systematic trading approach producing gains more like 40%-60%, but this is a more reasonable path to shoot towards.